Loveland, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS65 KBOU 152324
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
524 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture increases today and Saturday with a higher chance of
  thunderstorms. Strong, gusty outflow winds a threat with the
  storms.

- Slight cooling into this weekend, but still above normal
  temperatures through the week ahead.

- Drier weather again later this weekend through most of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows moisture wrapping around the
periphery of the ridge centered over the Central CONUS and into
western and central Colorado. This has aided in kicking off diurnal
convection over the high country in areas where the SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE in place.
Temperatures across the plains have climbed into the 90s, but
low-level moisture is sparse and ACARS soundings still show about
100 J/kg of CIN in place to overcome for convection to begin.
Dewpoint depressions are quite large, especially along the urban
corridor and adjacent plains where values between 45F to 55F are
widespread. This will lead to potential for a few things as the
day progresses. First, as storms move off of the higher terrain
and over the capped environment, there is potential for strong
microbursts or outflows to occur as storms begin to collapse as
they move over the lower elevations, causing gusts upwards of 45
to 55 mph to occur. Or, if the cap manages to be overcome, these
storms may persist onto the lower elevations and simply produce
microbursts or gusty outflows as evaporative cooling will be
efficient in this environment, and as seen yesterday, it won`t
take much to get some strong gusts out of passing showers or weak
storms. Shear is limited across the forecast area, and generally
MLCAPE values should remain below 500 J/kg across the plains, with
some greater instability expected for areas along the Wyoming and
Nebraska panhandle (from eastern Weld County to the NE border)
where some higher dewpoints are also in place. The SPC has a
marginal risk in place for these locations where isolated severe
wind gusts or large hail will be possible. Overnight temperatures
will be mild tonight, with upper 50s to mid-60s expected for the
plains and lower foothills, mid 40s for the mountain valleys.

Similar conditions are expected on Saturday with slightly higher
low-level moisture in place that should keep any gusty outflows
or microbursts a little weaker than what we see today.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today as well, but
still climb into the 90s for the majority of the plains. Shear is
still lacking, so any afternoon convection that forms is expected
to remain sub-severe.

Another warming and drying trend will kick off on Sunday and
continue through the forecast period while Colorado sits
underneath another building ridge. By Wednesday, ensembles show
precipitable water values dropping to around 90% of normal and
700mb temperatures increase to around 17C, making for another hot
and dry week. Fortunately, winds are generally expected to remain
light under the ridge which will help keep any critical fire
weather conditions from developing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Several boundaries running around late this aftn. Appears one will
move across DIA between 545 and 6 pm with a shift to south winds.
Threat of tstms has decreased so have gone back to Prob30 thru 7
pm. Overnight will keep winds mainly from the south.  On Sat,
light and variablle winds wind in the morning will become light
east of northeast by noon.  Will keep in a prob30 for tstms
between 2 pm and 6 pm with gusty outflow winds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...RPK